Tuesday, September 11, 2012

2012 Emmy Predictions: Drama

Lead Actress - Drama

Kathy Bates - Harry's Law
Claire Danes - Homeland
Elisabeth Moss - Mad Men
Julianna Margulies - The Good Wife
Michelle Dockery - Downton Abbey
Glenn Close - Damages

Predicted Winner: Claire Danes

If anyone else wins, it's a crime. Danes gives an incredible performance in every episode of Homeland.

Lead Actor - Drama

Damian Lewis - Homeland
Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad
Jon Hamm - Mad Men
Steve Buscemi - Boardwalk Empire
Hugh Bonneville - Downton Abbey
Michael C. Hall - Dexter

Predicted Winner: Bryan Cranston

Cranston is the safe bet here, especially since his show is wrapping up on a high note; but Lewis is giving the kind of performance awards voters just eat up.

Supporting Actress - Drama

Maggie Smith - Downton Abbey
Joanne Froggatt - Downton Abbey
Christina Hendricks - Mad Men
Anna Gunn - Breaking Bad
Archie Panjabi - The Good Wife
Christine Baranski - The Good Wife

Predicted Winner: Maggie Smith

Smith won last year in a category Downton Abbey never should've been eligible for (Miniseries/TV Movie), but that doesn't take away from the fact that she's excellent. On the other hand, Hendricks is due for the award, so I'm not counting her out entirely. They're pretty evenly matched, I think

Supporting Actor - Drama

Brendan Coyle - Downton Abbey
Jim Carter - Downton Abbey
Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones
Giancarlo Esposito - Breaking Bad
Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad
Jared Harris - Mad Men

Predicted Winner: Giancarlo Esposito

I think this is another category where there's little doubt that the award belongs to someone, and that someone is Esposito. Dinklage and Paul are both excellent, but both already have awards.

Guest Actress - Drama

Uma Thurman - Smash
Joan Cusack - Shameless
Julia Ormond - Mad Men
Martha Plimpton - The Good Wife
Jean Smart - The Good Wife
Loretta Devine - Grey's Anatomy

Predicted Winner: Jean Smart

These guest categories are always hard to predict, this particular one especially; I never saw Loretta Devine coming last year. So, in my mind, any of these women have a chance, including a repeat win for Devine.

Guest Actor - Drama

Jason Ritter - Parenthood
Michael J. Fox - The Good Wife
Dylan Baker - The Good Wife
Jeremy Davies - Justified
Ben Feldman - Mad Men
Mark Margolis - Breaking Bad

Predicted Winner: Mark Margolis

Fox and Margolis are pretty even, in my mind. I think Breaking Bad is the stronger show, so Margolis will come out on top. Plus, that's a gutsy performance: he doesn't utter a word, relying entirely on facial expressions and a bell.

Drama Series

Mad Men
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Boardwalk Empire

Predicted Winner: Homeland

I'm not at all confident in predicting Homeland, unquestionably the best new show of the last year (and probably of many years), as the winner. It absolutely deserves to win, but Downton Abbey is the type of show Emmy voters love. The Academy clearly loves Breaking Bad but has never rewarded it as the Best Series... will they do it this year, considering next year will be its last of eligibility? And Mad Men is always a contender as well.

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