Monday, September 10, 2012

2012 Emmy Predictions: Comedy

Leading Actress - Comedy

Julia Louis-Dreyfus - Veep
Melissa McCarthy - Mike & Molly
Edie Falco - Nurse Jackie
Amy Poehler - Parks & Recreation
Tina Fey - 30 Rock
Zooey Deschanel - New Girl
Lena Dunham - Girls

Predicted Winner: Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Even though Veep is probably a long-shot for Comedy Series, it has an undeniably wonderful leading lady in Julia Louis-Dreyfus. The show wouldn't exist without her, and she effortlessly plays up the camp of her character in a good, old-fashioned, fully entertaining turn.

Leading Actor - Comedy

Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory
Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock
Louis C.K. - Louie
Larry David - Curb Your Enthusiasm
Jon Cryer - Two and a Half Men
Don Cheadle - House of Lies

Predicted Winner: Louis C.K.

Louie finally had the breakthrough it deserved with the awards circles this year, particularly its vulgar star/creator. I wouldn't be surprised, however, if his humor is a little too over-the-top for some voters, thereby opening up Jim Parsons to a third win for another very strong episode ("The Werewolf Transformation," in which Sheldon picks up the bongos).

Supporting Actress - Comedy

Sofia Vergara - Modern Family
Julie Bowen - Modern Family
Kathryn Joosten - Desperate Housewives
Kristen Wiig - Saturday Night Live
Mayim Bialik - The Big Bang Theory
Merritt Wever - Nurse Jackie

Predicted Winner: Julie Bowen

I think Bowen will take it again this year, even though my vote would go to Mayim Bialik for the single funniest moment on television last season in her submitted episode: the tiara freak-out. But I wouldn't count out a sympathy vote for the recently deceased Joosten, or for Wiig in her last season at SNL. This category is pretty open with a lot of wild card factors at play. But I still think it's Bowen's to lose.

Supporting Actor - Comedy

Bill Hader - Saturday Night Live
Ty Burrell - Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet - Modern Family
Ed O'Neill - Modern Family
Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Modern Family
Max Greenfield - New Girl

Predicted Winner: Jesse Tyler Ferguson

Any of the Modern Family guys could easily take this, but since Stonestreet and Burrell already have statues in this category, I'm holding out hope for a win for Ferguson. But based on the strength of the submitted episodes, Stonestreet may get a second win here.

Guest Actress - Comedy

Elizabeth Banks - 30 Rock
Margaret Cho - 30 Rock
Melissa McCarthy - Saturday Night Live
Maya Rudolph - Saturday Night Live
Kathy Bates - Two and a Half Men
Dot-Marie Jones - Glee

Predicted Winner: Melissa McCarthy

I don't really think anyone else can touch McCarthy, but never underestimate the power of Kathy Bates.

Guest Actor - Comedy

Will Arnett - 30 Rock
Jon Hamm - 30 Rock
Jimmy Fallon - Saturday Night Live
Bobby Cannavale - Nurse Jackie
Michael J. Fox - Curb Your Enthusiasm
Greg Kinnear - Modern Family

Predicted Winner: Michael J. Fox

Fox did something a lot of awards voters like: played a caricature of himself. It's worked well for Matt LeBlanc on Episodes (though his absence in the Leading Actor category this year is shocking, he won the Golden Globe), and I think that combined with how well-liked he is will give Fox the award.

Comedy Series

Veep
Girls
Modern Family
The Big Bang Theory
30 Rock
Curb Your Enthusiasm

Predicted Winner: Modern Family

I have to say these nominations confuse me; I don't understand why Veep is here, considering its only other major nomination was for Julia Louis-Dreyfus. I'd think Louie would be a better nominee, since it has nominations in both writing and directing categories as well as for its leading man. But keeping comedy and writing nominations in mind, as well as acting nods, I think this has to go to Modern Family again... although an upset by Curb Your Enthusiasm wouldn't be a total surprise.

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