The Creative Arts Emmys (or "The Shmemmys," as they've come to be known) are tonight, offering up the various and numerous technical awards for the best in television. There are some bigger categories represented tonight, however, so let's look at them.
Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series
Probable Winner: Michael J. Fox, The Good Wife
I'd Pick: Paul McCrane, Harry's Law
I don't watch The Good Wife, but you don't have to be a genius to think that a well-respected actor with more than two decades of television work and a sympathetic personal story is the frontrunner. Paul McCrane is a slimy delight on Harry's Law, and the nomination is well deserved. I think he's a long shot to win though.
Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
Probable Winner: Justin Timberlake, Saturday Night Live
I'd Pick: Justin Timberlake
Justin Timberlake is the most successful guest host of Saturday Night Live, aside from Alec Baldwin. He'll win a third well-deserved Emmy in this category.
Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series
Probable Winner: Joan Cusack, Shameless
I'd Pick: Julia Stiles, Dexter
Either of these actresses could conceivably win. I think Joan Cusack will pull out ahead, simply because of her past career and a general respect in the business. I haven't seen Shameless, but I've heard she was also very good in her episode, so that'll help. Julia Stiles is still testing the waters of television, but she had an incredible role to do it with on Dexter.
Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
Probable Winner: Gwyneth Paltrow, Glee
I'd Pick: Gwyneth Paltrow
Listen, I despise Gwyneth Paltrow. I think she's a stuck up snob and a total tool, not to mention a completely over-rated, mediocre-at-best actress. But she was fantastic in "The Substitute," her first appearance (and submitted episode) on Glee. For the first time ever, I didn't hate watching her. That feat alone makes her deserving of the award. Cloris Leachman provides some stiff competition, but as a TV Hall of Fame inductee and a 9-time winner, I think they'll give the award to someone else.
Outstanding Reality Series, Non-Competition
Probable Winner: The Deadliest Catch
I'd Pick: Kathy Griffin: My Life on the D-List
After a category switch, The Deadliest Catch looks like it will claim its first Emmy. I will never understand what is attractive about this show, but to each his own. I find it unbearably boring and completely idiotic. I'd go with the final season of Kathy Griffin's twice-awarded series, which finished with a strong season of episodes that included a public pap smear; a visit to Sarah Palin's house; and a DADT repeal rally.
Outstanding Reality Host
Probable Winner: Jeff Probst, Survivor
I'd Pick: Cat Deeley, So You Think You Can Dance
I love Jeff Probst, I really do. He's so great on Survivor; he's personable and interesting, and he asks the questions that we really want answered (unlike most other reality hosts, who are mostly just set dressings). But I can't not want Cat Deeley to win. She's so charming and lovely on SYTYCD, and this nomination is long overdue.
Outstanding Variety Special
Probable Winner: 2010 Kennedy Center Honors
I'd Pick: Carrie Fisher's Wishful Drinking
Carrie Fisher's special will never win, but it was the most entertaining of the bunch. But this category is never about what is the most entertaining, because the Kennedy Center awards win every damn year.
Outstanding Special Class Program
Probable Winner: The Tony Awards
I'd Pick: The Golden Globe Awards
If the Emmy voters had any balls, they'd give this award to the Golden Globes telecast. Ricky Gervais's outrageous hosting raised such a stink, and he's admitted that he was nearly fired mid-show. That's gold. But I think the Tonys have the edge, even though the 2010 ceremony was pretty boring, no thanks to should've-been-better host Sean Hayes.