Outstanding Drama Series
Probable Winner: Mad Men
I'd Pick: Lost
Lost was consistenly one of the best shows on television throughout its six-year run, but it only won for Best Drama Series for its first season. This is the last chance they have to reward the show that changed the landscape of television, and despite the fact that the final season was a bit rocky, the submitted episodes were all of the season's best. It'd be my pick, but with so many nominees I could justify winning for one reason or another, it seems likely that Mad Men will just take it again.
Should Have Been Nominated: Southland
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Probable Winner: Michael C. Hall, Dexter
I'd Pick: Matthew Fox, Lost
Matthew Fox gave one of the greatest performances of the entire series in Lost's finale, but I don't think he'll win due to how little screen time he has in the entirety of the 2-hour finale (a boon for the leading category). And Michael C. Hall has Golden Globe and SAG awards already, plus the sympathy vote. Look for him to add an Emmy to his collection.
Should Have Been Nominated: Timothy Olyphant, Justified
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Probable Winner: Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
I'd Pick: Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: SVU
Julianna Margulies has swept all the major awards, so she'll probably pick up the Emmy as well. Mariska Hargitay's submitted episode may have been one of the only good ones of the season, but that's the beauty of choosing your consideration material. And she chose well. Unfortunately, this is a pretty bland category; I didn't find any of these performances particularly exceptional or even all that interesting.
Should Have Been Nominated: Anna Paquin, True Blood
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Probable Win: Terry O'Quinn, Lost
I'd Pick: Michael Emerson, Lost
This category is pretty open, but I think Terry O'Quinn has the best shot. He got to play two drastically different versions of Locke this season (three, if you include the corpse), and both performances were at their strongest in "The Substitute," his submitted episode. I just felt more for Emerson's Ben Linus in his submitted episode ("Dr. Linus"), one of my favorites of the season. The final scene of the episode really solidifies his character's arc, and he benefits from being the main focus of the episode, whereas Sawyer also played a large part in "The Substitute."
Should Have Been Nominated: Nestor Carbonell, Lost
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Probable Win: Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
I'd Pick: Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Supporting categories, at all awards shows, are notorious for rewarding bodies of work rather than a single performance; with that reasoning, I think Elisabeth Moss will win. She's been nominated for this role before (in leading), but now has a chance to get it as her character has grown. Christine Baranski is always a solid performer, and I enjoy her immensely. That's the only reasoning I have behind my choice, since none of these nominees are truly exciting.
Should Have Been Nominated: Michelle Forbes, True Blood