The Emmys are, more so than any other awards show, notoriously difficult to predict. There are always out-of-left-field nominees and winners (see: Jeff Daniels' win last year for The Newsroom), so these predictions are more for fun than anything else.
Miniseries and Television Movie
Writing, Movie/Miniseries: Larry Kramer, The Normal Heart
Directing, Movie/Miniseries: Adam Bernstein, Fargo
Supporting Actress, Movie/Miniseries: Allison Tolman, Fargo
Supporting Actor, Movie/Miniseries: Matt Bomer, The Normal Heart
Lead Actress, Movie/Miniseries: Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful
Lead Actor, Movie/Miniseries: Billy Bob Thornton, Fargo
Television Movie: The Normal Heart
These categories will likely flip-flop between The Normal Heart and Fargo throughout. Lead Actor is a horse race between Thornton and Mark Ruffalo, and so is Supporting Actress between Folman and Julia Roberts. I wouldn't be surprised if, in any category above, the other of Fargo or The Normal Heart wins (or if Jessica Lange manages to eke out a win for being the only thing about American Horror Story: Coven that was good in every episode).
Writing: Louis C.K., Louie ("So Did the Fat Lady")
Directing: Jodie Foster, Orange is the New Black ("Lesbian Request Denied")
Supporting Actress: Allison Janney, Mom
Supporting Actor: Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Lead Actress: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Lead Actor: Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Comedy Series: Orange is the New Black
I sincerely hope this is the year Modern Family's reign ends, and it seems it will be likely with Orange is the New Black becoming a cultural phenomenon; the only thing working against it is the fact that it's competing as a comedy rather than as a drama. Allison Janney already won an Emmy last week at the Creative Arts ceremony for her guest spot on Masters of Sex, but I don't think that will stop her from taking home another (this time in a comedy category) for her scene-stealing role on CBS's underrated rising sophomore Mom. I've also predicted a win for another new comedy series with Andre Braugher in Fox's Brooklyn Nine-Nine, the most consistently funny thing about the sometimes-uneven show; but Veep's Tony Hale could just as easily take home a second Emmy for his brilliant work on the HBO show. All in all, though, this could shake out to be a big year for the comedy categories, with a lot of strong new contenders to take away the aging Modern Family's thunder.
Writing: Moira Walley-Beckett, Breaking Bad ("Ozymandias")
Directing: Cary Joji Fukunaga, True Detective ("Who Goes There")
Supporting Actress: Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Supporting Actor: Josh Charles, The Good Wife
Lead Actress: Robin Wright, House of Cards
Lead Actor: Matthew McConaughey, True Detective
Drama Series: Breaking Bad
I think Breaking Bad will take away one final Emmy for Drama Series, but this was a strong year all around for other dramas, so I don't see it sweeping again. Of course, that could always happen considering this will be the last chance the Academy gets to honor the show... so seeing Aaron Paul and/or Bryan Cranston walk away with yet another (final) win under the belts wouldn't shock me. I predicted Josh Charles' win using the same logic: he played a beloved character on The Good Wife and was dispatched of in a shocking manner that everyone in the country, even those who don't watch the show, were talking about the next day; he's also been nominated once before for this role but didn't win, so this could be the chance to reward his work. But Aaron Paul is a critical and audience favorite for his Breaking Bad character, so a third win for his role as Jesse Pinkman is just as likely. The only sure thing in these categories seems to be a win for True Detective in Best Directing for a gem of an episode containing an eight-minute, tension-filled long take.